Lennart Meri Conference 2018
The Next Hundred Years
01-03 June 2018, Tallinn, Radisson Blu Sky Hotel
|Friday, June 01|
|17.00-17.05||Welcome note by Sven Sakkov, Director of the ICDS|
|17.05-17.15||Address by the President of Austria, Dr Alexander Van der Bellen|
|Who Owns History?
A popular argument says that history is too important to be left to the historians. But to whom should we leave the history, then? Who owns history? In our age of fake news and post-truths, it is very timely to ask about the role of history in democracy. History is malleable, it can be twisted and turned, used and abused to suit various needs and ends. History is not only about the past, it also impacts our future. “Who controls the past controls the future” was one of Orwell’s main lessons. Can we, or should we protect history from political, commercial or other kinds of instrumentalisation?
|Yuri Slezkine, Jane K. Sather Professor of History, University of Cailfornia Berkeley, Russia|
|Marek Tamm, Professor of Cultural History, Tallinn University, Estonia|
|Uffe Ellemann-Jensen, Former Foreign Minister of Denmark|
|Moderated by: Natalie Nougayrède, Editorial Board member and Columnist, The Guardian|
|18:45||Transfer to the Dinner|
|19.00||Dinner, hosted by the President of Estonia Kersti Kaljulaid|
|(by invitation only)|
|21.30||Transfer to the hotel & conference venue|
|22:00||Night owl session|
|Chatham House Rule|
|Russia and the West: Crossroads or Dead End?
Robert Karem, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, US Department of Defense
Dmitri Trenin, Director, Expert Council Chair, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Russia
Carl Bildt, Former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden
Sergei Utkin, Head, Department of Strategic Assessment, Centre for Situation Analysis, Russian Academy of Sciences
Moderated by: Kadri Liik, Senior Fellow, ECFR, London
|Saturday, June 02|
|Chatham House Rule|
|Eastern Partnership: Strategic Vision or Wishful Thinking?
Jana Kobzova, Head of Policy, Rasmussen Global
Riina Kionka, Chief Foreign Policy Adviser of European Council President, Donald Tusk
Tengiz Pkhakaladze, Advisor to the President of Georgia, Foreign Relations Secretary
Balazs Jarabik, Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA
Moderated by: Jan Techau, Senior Fellow and Director, Europe Program, GMF, Berlin
When All News is “Fake”: Strategies for a Confused Age
Jakub Kalensky, East StratCom Task Force Member at European External Action Service
Ia Meurmishvili, International Broadcaster, /TV Anchor at Voice of America, Georgia Service
Alina Polyakova, David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Foreign Policy Center on the United States and Europe, The Brookings Institution
Anton Shekhovtsov, Visiting Fellow, Institute for Human Sciences, Ukraine
Moderated by: Christian Caryl, Editor, The Washington Post
Challenges from the South: Firefighting vs Strategy
Giuseppe Perrone, Ambassador of Italy to Libya
Mustafa Aydin, Rector of Kadir Has University, President of the International Relations Council of Turkey
Michael Köhler, Director for Neighbourhood South at the Directorate General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, European Commission
Elisabeth Millard, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs
Moderated by: Tom Nuttall, Charlemagne columnist, The Economist
European Defence: Where’s the Beef?
Jana Puglierin, Head of Programme, Alfred von Oppenheim Centre for European Policy Studies, DGAP, Germany
Adam Thomson, Director of the European Leadership Network, UK
Etienne De Durand, Deputy for Defence Policy and Strategic Foresight, Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy, Ministry of Defence, France
Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, Atlantic Council, Sweden
Moderated by: Barbara Kunz, Research fellow, French Institute of International Relations, France
|Geography and Threat: Should NATO Mind the East/South Gap?
NATO faces risks to its east and to its south. To the east, Russia continues its military build-up and looks for opportunities to confront Western cohesion. To the south, instability and conflict bring the challenges of migration and terrorism to our borders. NATO’s recent summits in Wales and Warsaw have focused largely on those risks emanating from the east. But the individual Allies’ geographical location and strategic culture inevitably shape their perceptions of where and how NATO should deploy its scarce resources. Is there more still to be done on the eastern flank, or should NATO now turn greater attention to the south? Where should the balance of attention and means lie? Can the differing perspectives of the Allies be reconciled and single strategic approach found? Does NATO need a new Strategic Concept?
Colonel David Pendall, Deputy Chief of Staff, US Army Europe
Jüri Luik, Minister of Defence, Estonia
José Alberto de Azeredo Lopes, Minister of Defence, Portugal
Claudia Major, International Security Division, SWP, Berlin
Moderated by: Constanze Stelzenmüller, Robert Bosch Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution
|Democracy and Digital Misdeeds: Fighting Foreign Manipulation
Openness, diversity and tolerance are among the greatest strengths of the world’s liberal democracies. But to autocratic regimes, these same attributes are vulnerabilities ripe for exploitation. Attacks based on deceit, anonymity and the leaking of stolen and distorted information are potent. Without the courage and the tools to face up to the threat posed by the subversive efforts of illiberal countries or interest groups, we are contributing to the erosion of our own values. How do we defend democracies against adversaries who exploit our trust and openness? Can we defend ourselves without sacrificing the principles that make our societies worth defending?
Mark Galeotti, Director, Mayak Intelligence
Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence and Security, NATO
Andrey Soldatov, Editor, Agentura.ru, Russia
Daniel Moore, PhD candidate, King’s College London, and Security Principal, Accenture iDefense
Moderated by: Edward Lucas, Senior Vice President, CEPA
|14:00-16:00||Optional events – visits and excursions (please check the conference website for the full list of options)|
|How Great is Europe?
In spite of the rise of populist, Eurosceptic political parties in many European countries over recent years, a solid majority of EU citizens continues to see EU membership as a positive thing. Brexit was not the start of a domino effect. On the contrary, it led to a renewed recognition of the positive aspects of integration. The new leadership of France and Germany is expected to steer the EU towards strengthening the Eurozone and enhancing the EU´s contribution to security and defence. On the other hand, cleavages between East and West, and North and South, make it hard to agree on the steps ahead. Solidarity among member states and citizens has been weakened by the many crises that the EU has experienced in the past decade. Even common values can no longer be taken for granted. What will be the main challenges for the EU during the institutional cycle that will follow the European Parliament elections in 2019? What is it that holds us Europeans together? Are we simply afraid of the unknown consequences of disintegration? Or do we really believe that the EU is great?
Jüri Ratas, Prime Minister of Estonia
Lolita Čigāne, Chairperson of the European Affairs Committee, Latvian Saeima
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Vice President and Executive Director, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, Berlin Office
Konrad Szymański, Secretary of State for European Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Poland
Moderated by: Ali Aslan, TV Presenter and Journalist, DW
|Thinking the Unthinkable: Why Has Leadership Failed?
FaceBook’s data catastrophe; MeToo; Populism; Nationalism; Trump; Putin, Russia and the nerve agent attack; the impact of AI on work and skills; Brexit.
Why are disruption and unthinkables creating ever-greater uncertainty for corporate and political leaders? Why do they have trouble thinking unthinkables then leading as voters, consumers and citizens expect?
Thinking the Unthinkable reveals the private fears of top leaders during candid one-to-one conversations. Many are ‘scared’ and ‘overwhelmed’ by the new disruptions. Findings and implications for policymakers out of new data from hundreds of interviews with world leaders.
Presenter: Nik Gowing, Co-Author, Thinking the Unthinkable, UK
Commentator: Carl Bildt, Former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden
|Eighteen Months of Trump Foreign Policy: Right Direction Wrong Track?
U.S. Foreign Policy under President Trump seems to have two defining characteristics: One is the proliferation of sensationalist tweets: Rocket-Man, Animal Assad, Witch Hunt, Fake News, etc. The other has been some serious policymaking, including reinforcing European security, supporting Ukraine, negotiating with North Korea, defeating ISIS, and pushing back on China. Where do we stand after 18-months of President Trump? Are we seeing a necessary and welcome reversal of President’ Obama’s retreat from American leadership? Or are we seeing a dangerous and provocative America-First belligerence? The McCain Institute presents a structured debate on this critical topic — are we heading in the right direction, or are we on the wrong track?
Daniel Vajdich, Senior Fellow Atlantic Council
Randy Scheunemann, President, Orion Strategies, US
Marie Mendras, Professor, Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po, Research Fellow, CNRS
Constanze Stelzenmüller, Robert Bosch Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution
Moderated by: Susan Glasser, Staff Writer of The New Yorker Magazine and Author of a Weekly Column, ‘Letter From Washington’
|20.30||Networking dinner in the conference hotel|
|22.00||Night owl sessions|
|Chatham House Rule
Putin’s Grand Finale: What will Putin’s Last Term Mean for Russia?
Vladimir Kara-Murza, Vice Chairman, Open Russia Movement, Russia
Alexey Levinson, Head of Department, Levada Center, Russia
Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council, USA
Moderated by: David Kramer, Senior Fellow in the Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy, Florida International University, USA
Afghanistan: Will This Time be Different?
Ahmed Rashid, Journalist and Author, Pakistan
Gen. (Ret.) David H. Petraeus, Chairman, KKR Global Institute,
KKR New York
Mariam Wardak, Advisor, Office of the National Security Council, Afghanistan
Olga Oliker, Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme, CSIS
Moderated by: Steven Erlanger, Journalist, The New York Times
Brave New World: Utopia or Dystopia?
Technology is a pillar of human civilisation. It has often defined entire eras of human history — ranging from the industrial revolution to the nuclear era to today’s information age. Accelerating advances in information technology, robotics, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and synthetic biology are producing or promise to produce massive social and political impact. These disruptive trends raise many issues affecting national security and global stability. They also have profound implications for the fundamental legal, moral and ethical aspects of social organisation and welfare provision. What are those threats and opportunities? Which of our fundamental values and principles will come under pressure in the next technological era? What aspects of liberal democratic societies, their alliances and international order generally will new technology most challenge? How can we best prepare ourselves for a future whose technological contours are only beginning to emerge, while still managing the ongoing disruption driven by the rapid pace of technological change?
Lucas Kello, University of Oxford, Senior Lecturer in International Relations
Ulrike Franke, Policy Fellow, ECFR, Berlin
Tomáš Valášek, Director, Carnegie Europe, Brussels
Vivian Loonela, Member of Cabinet of Vice-President Andrus Ansip (responsible for Digital Single Market), European Commission
Moderated by: Jill Dougherty, Global Fellow, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center
Ukraine: Proxy War of the New Cold War?
Kurt Volker, Executive Director of the McCain Institute, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations
Anna Arutunyan, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group, Russia
James Sherr, Associate Fellow, Chatham House
Hanna Hopko, Chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Ukrainian Parliament
Moderated by: Quentin Peel, Associate Fellow, Chatham House
|Sunday, June 03|
|Chatham House Rule
Somewhere in the Arctic: Security Challenges in the High North
Pavel Baev, Research Professor, PRIO, Norway
Robert Huebert, Associate Professor, University of Calgary, Canada
Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, Professor of International Security, University of Loughborough, UK
Niklas Granholm, Deputy Director of Studies, Swedish Defence Research Agency
Moderated by: Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Senior Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Sea-Blind and Air-Blind?: Does Baltic Defence need Re-calibration?
Alexander Vershbow, US Ambassador (retired), Distinguished Fellow, The Atlantic Council of the United States
Sir Chris Harper, Air Marshal, CH4C Global Ltd, UK
Jonatan Vseviov, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Defence, Estonia
Andrew Michta, Dean, George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Germany
Moderated by: Sven Sakkov, Director of the ICDS, Estonia
The Western Balkans and the EU: Compromising Values for Security?
Daniel Mitov, Director Eurasia, NDI, Former Foreign Minister of Bulgaria
Jelena Milic, Director of the Centre for Euro-Atlantic Studies, Serbia
Matti Maasikas, Undersecretary for European Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Estonia
François Lafond, Special Adviser to Deputy Prime Minister of European Affairs, Government of Macedonia
Moderated by: Isabelle Lasserre, International Affairs Editor, Le Figaro
Nord Stream 2: Piping Hot Politics?
Mikhail Korchemkin, Founder and Executive Director of East European Gas Analysis
Brenda Shaffer, Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
Jean-Arnold Vinois, Advisor of European Energy Policy, Jacque Delors Institute
Benjamin L. Schmitt, European Energy Security Advisor, Bureau of Energy Resources, U.S. Department of State
Moderated by: Damien McGuinness, BBC, Berlin Correspondent
|China’s Game in Europe: What Rules, What Stakes?
China’s foreign direct investments have been growing fast globally. Many Chinese investors have looked for more than a decade for opportunities to buy European assets. Their investments may have helped Eurozone countries ride out the 2008 financial crisis, but are likely to have broader consequences in the medium- to long-term – Chinese investments are state led and China uses investments in infrastructure and public utilities to create political leverage. At the same time, China maintains very significant barriers to foreign investors aiming to access its markets. How much investment is safe for good relations? How will European leaders deal with a massive influx of cheap Chinese money? Would the EU and the US win by cooperating against Chinese expansion?
Maria Martin-Prat, Director in the European Commission Directorate General for Trade where she is responsible for Services, Investment, Intellectual Property and Public Procurement
Roland Freudenstein, Policy Director, Marten’s Centre, Brussels
Jerker Hellström, Head of the Asia and Middle East Programme, Division of Defence Analysis, Swedish Defence Research Agency
Alan Riley, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, UK
Moderated by: Theresa Fallon, Director, Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies, Brussels
|The UN: Fit for Purpose?
The UN was born in 1945 from a desperate need to prevent the horrors of the Second World War ever recurring. Almost eight decades later, while global-scale conflict has been avoided, the world is still not a safe place. New crises continue to emerge and unforeseen security challenges, forms of warfare and battlegrounds challenge the peace. Yet the UN is largely unchanged. Is the Security Council fit to deal with questions such as international law in cyberspace, hybrid warfare and fake news? Can the UN reconcile the interests of its small and large member states? Is this organisation fit for purpose and, if not, what might the alternatives be?
Sven Mikser, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Estonia
Espen Barth Eide, Member of the Parliament, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Norway
Lamberto Zannier, The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities
Nathalie Goulet, Member of the French Senate
Moderated by: Kersti Kaljulaid, President of Estonia