One Past, Many Futures


Agenda, working version, subject to change

The title of the conference and of the panels are quotations from Lennart Meri’s speeches

Venue: conference centre of the Radisson Blu Sky Hotel


Friday May 17


Welcome and introduction to the Rein Pakk-Rainer Sarnet exhibition, Sven Sakkov, Director of the ICDS



Opening session

One Past, Many Futures

Kersti Kaljulaid, President of Estonia

Ursula von der Leyen, Minister of Defence, Germany

Salome Zourabichvili, President of Georgia


Moderated by: Jüri Luik, Minister of Defence, Estonia



Transfer to Dinner (Lennusadam)


Dinner, hosted by President Kersti Kaljulaid

(by invitation only)


Transfer to the hotel and conference venue



Night Owl session under Chatham House Rule

The Future Is in Our Hands

Voting patterns in Europe show deepening differences both between EU member states and between sectors of their populations. Voters are divided between left and right, liberal and illiberal, new and old member state, East and West and North and South, but there is also generational divide. Economic forecasts suggest that the generation currently stepping onto the stage will, for the first time in Europe’s post-war era, be poorer than their parents. While this generation may rebel as usual against their predecessors, they do not necessarily have more liberal values. They will be required to pay for the negligence and indifference of their parents concerning climate change. They will live in a world of rapid technical development, but declining human contact. How do they perceive the most acute of today’s problems and what values guide them in searching for solutions? What longstanding conflicts in the EU will die with the change of generation and what new ones will emerge? How does this emerging generation interpret migration? How does it find the balance between integration and isolation, and between seclusion and contact? Does it see a need for a common European identity and core values?

Ulrike Franke, Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations, London 

Gustaf Göthberg, Candidate for European Parliament, Moderate Party, Sweden

Akilnathan Logeswaran, Digital Ambassador, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH, Germany

Zhanna Nemtsova, Founder, Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom, Germany


Moderated byNatalie Nougayrède, Editorial Board Member and Columnist, The Guardian, UK


Saturday May 18


Breakfast sessions under Chatham House Rule


Guns Instead of Principles? What Will Follow the INF?

James Anderson, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities, U.S. Department of Defense

Pavel Baev, Research Professor, The Peace Research Institute Oslo

Peter Hultqvist, Minister of Defence, Sweden

Joseph Siracusa, Professor of Human Security and International Diplomacy, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University


Moderated by Ulrich Kühn, Deputy Head, IFAR, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, University of Hamburg


Unity of Principles: France and Germany in a Changing Europe

Francois Heisbourg, Senior Advisor for Europe, International Institute for Strategic Studies

Giampiero Massolo, President of Italian Institute for International Political Studies

Artis Pabriks, Minister of Defence, Latvia

Nils Schmid, Member of the Bundestag, Germany


Moderated by: Ulrike Franke, Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations, London 


The Word is Very Powerful: Is the US Now Smaller or Bigger on the Map?

Ian Brzezinski, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, USA

Rachel Ellehuus, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Europe Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington D.C.

David Kramer, Senior Fellow in the Václav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy, Florida International University

Christian Mölling, Research Director, German Council on Foreign Relations


Moderated by: Julian Lindley-French, Senior Fellow, The Institute for Statecraft, London


The Art of Balance: Will Belarus Endure?

Wojciech Konończuk, Head of Department for Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, Centre for Eastern Studies, Warsaw

Andrey Kortunov, Director General, Russian International Affairs Council

Oleg Kravchenko, Deputy Foreign Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Belarus  

Arseni Sivitski, Director, Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, Belarus


Moderated by: Philip Bednarczyk, Transatlantic Fellow, Robert Bosch Foundation 



Panel discussion

Do Not Trade Your Principles: Kleptocracy and Money Laundering

Globalization has a dark side, shaking the foundations of democratic statehood and security. Kleptocracy is not only a problem for countries which have had their riches stolen, such as Ukraine and Russia, but also for the UK, the US and Switzerland. It affects developed democracies where, with the help of banking systems, taxation rules and loopholes, dirty money is transformed into yachts, real estate and luxury goods. It undermines the rule of law, perceptions of justice, democratic values and even politics—for example, Brexit or Paul Manafort’s role in the US presidential campaign. In the era of the global market, is everything—citizenship, passports, values, and principles—for sale? What is the role of international banking in money laundering without borders and in the accumulation by the few of massive, but invisible riches?  Can the spiralling concentration of capital in the hands of a clan of the super-rich, immune to laws, limits, state borders and regulations, be stopped? What are the implications of dirty money entering Western democracies and what can West do to confront this problem? Is the dark side of globalization inevitable, or do we have means to fight back?

Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

Marshall Billingslea, Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of the Treasury

Oliver Bullough, Journalist, UK

Ardo Hansson, Governor of Eesti Pank, Estonia


Moderated by: Molly Montgomery, Vice President, Europe Practice, Albright Stonebridge Group, USA





Panel discussion

The Siren Calls of Populism: The Roots of Frustration at the Dawn of the EP Elections

With the European Parliament elections taking place in one week, frustration, anger and fear are in the air. Europe’s populations increasingly distrust leaders who have been unable to deliver answers to their worries, and Eurosceptics and populist movements are projected to gain. What are the roots of these feelings? What drives populism in Europe?  Why do so many feel that they are not represented by their governments? Today, when the liberal order no longer seems inevitable, what mistakes have been made by leaders? And more importantly, what lessons have been learned? What results can we expect from the EP elections and what will be the impact on the European Union and Europe more widely? How might frustration be transformed into new hope and trust? How can populations be persuaded to ignore the siren calls of populist slogans?

Miroslav Lajčák, Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Slovakia  

Tom Nuttall, Berlin Bureau Chief, The Economist

Anton Shekhovtsov, Lecturer, University of Vienna

Szabolcs Takács, Minister of State for EU Policies, Prime Minister’s Office, Hungary


Moderated by: Alina Polyakova, David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Foreign Policy Center on the United States and Europe, The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.






Optional side events and excursions



Panel discussion

Dragging Our Cart Uphill Together? NATO@70 and the Army of Europeans

As NATO enters its eighth decade it faces state-based defence and deterrence challenges to its east and persistent instability to its south. But it also faces internal disagreements about the relative importance of these challenges, about what its response should be, and about how the burden of responding should be shared among the Allies. Meanwhile, EU member states are continuing to work on the practicalities of developing the EU’s defence dimension, but struggling to reach a consensus on what its role in the world should be. How can the different security perceptions and needs of the Allies, and their understanding of the role of NATO in the present security environment be brought together without stoking further tensions? Does the Alliance, for example, need a new strategic concept? What is a realistic level of ambition for Europe as a security actor in today’s world? Do European ambitions strengthen or threaten the Alliance? How can the two organisations work together to enhance the security of the West?

Michal Baranowski, Director of the Warsaw Office, The German Marshall Fund of the US

Camille Grand, Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment, NATO

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, Member of the Bundestag, Germany

Constanze Stelzenmüller, Robert Bosch Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.


Moderated by: Ali Aslan, TV Presenter and Journalist, Germany



Lennart Meri Lecture





Panel discussion

One’s Own Place in the World? Russia’s Rising Generation

In Russia, a new generation is stepping into adulthood. Born during Putin’s reign, it has never experienced anything else. At the same time, Putin’s popularity is falling and the part of Russian society looking for change is growing. What are the aspirations, values, moods and perceptions of the new generation in Russia? How should the West view the recent shifts in Russian society? Are they footprints in the sand that will quickly vanish, or something more fundamental? Is the new generation a threat to the structure of Putin’s state or, as its child, will it simply develop it further? How is the health of Russia’s economy? Will economic decline lead to changes in ideology or systems of values? What is the role and significance of the huge numbers of young Russian expats living in the West? How should the West read the new signs in Russia and how should they be translated into the language of foreign policy?  Will the new generation in Russia be able to find its own place?

Masha Gessen, Staff Writer, The New Yorker

Alexey Levinson, Head of Department, Levada Center, Russia

Kadri Liik, Senior Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin

Ekaterina Schulmann, Associate Professor of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russia


Moderated by: Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow, RUSI, London



Networking dinner in the conference hotel



Night owl sessions under Chatham House Rule


Will the Small Endure? The Balkans and the Drift of Strategic Interests

Nikola Dimitrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs, North Macedonia

Riina Kionka, Chief Foreign Policy Advisor to European Council President Donald Tusk

Andrew Michta, Dean, George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Germany

Iztok Mirošič, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Slovenia


Moderated by: Jelena Milić, Director of the Centre for Euro-Atlantic Studies, Serbia


A State of Hopeless Confusion: Russia and the US

Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Director, Transatlantic Security Program, Center for New American Security, Washington D.C.

Olga Oliker, Director, Russia and Central Asia Program, International Crisis Group, Brussels

Christian Schmidt, Member of the Bundestag, Germany

Dmitri Suslov, Deputy Director, Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia


Moderated by: Jill Dougherty, Global Fellow, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington D.C.


Ukraine after the Elections: She Must Be Wiser and Cleverer than Her Adversary, Who Is Certainly Stronger

Jana Kobzova, Policy Director, Rasmussen Global, Brussels

Molly Montgomery, Vice President, Europe Practice, Albright Stonebridge Group, the US

Galyna Zelenko, Head of Department, Kuras Institute of Political and Ethnic Studies, National Academy of Science, Ukraine

Andrew Wilson, Senior Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations


Moderated by: James Sherr, Estonian Foreign Policy Institute/ICDS


A Bulldozer Is not a Tool of Integration: How to Interpret Nationalism?

Jan Techau, Senior Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Berlin

Sławomir Dębski, Director, Polish Institute of International Affairs

Ana Paula Zacarias, Secretary of State for European Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Portugal


Moderated by: Matti Maasikas, Undersecretary for European Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Estonia


Sunday May 19


Breakfast sessions under Chatham House Rule


The Only Constant in Our Turbulent World Is Geography: The Middle East

Sanem Güner, Assistant Director, Hollings Center for International Dialogue, Istanbul

Andrey Kortunov, Director General, Russian International Affairs Council

Ahmed Rashid, Journalist, Pakistan

Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh, Professor, Sciences Po, Paris


Moderated by: Kimberly Dozier, Contributor, CNN/The Daily Beast


An Antenna Can Outweigh the World’s Biggest Army: Elections in the Digital World

Scott Carpenter, Managing Director, Jigsaw, New York

Solvita Denisa-Liepniece, Assistant Professor, Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences, Latvia

Charles Kriel, Founder, Kriel.Agency, London

Leonid Volkov, Founder, Internet Protection Society, Moscow


Moderated by: Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar, Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Estonia


Dangerous World: Security Shifts in the Black Sea Region

Iulian Chifu, President, Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Center, Bucharest

Shota Gvineria, Senior Fellow, Economic Policy Research Center, Tbilisi

Olexandr Khara, Director for Multilateral Diplomacy, Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation, Kyiv

Gerlinde Niehus, Head of Public Diplomacy Engagements, NATO


Moderated by: James Sherr, Estonian Foreign Policy Institute/ICDS


Afterwards, It Will be Too Late to Complain: Energy Choices Facing Our Region

Matthew Bryza, Member, Board of the Jamestown Foundation, Washington D.C.

Agnia Grigas, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, Washington D.C.

Einari Kisel, Regional Manager for Europe, World Energy Council

Alan Riley, Senior Fellow, The Institute for Statecraft, London


Moderated by: Michael Peel, European Diplomatic Correspondent, Financial Times



Panel discussion

China and the West: Playing Chess with Checkers’ Rules?

Today we are witnesses to a growing Chinese role in the world, evident in the strategic New Silk Road projects and China’s vast investments in key technologies and critical infrastructure. Chinese investments and economic interests in the US and Europe will have substantial political, security and economic impact in the coming ten years and beyond. How will China`s strategic goals evolve and how sustainable are they? Are China’s massive investment projects sustaining or burdening its economy? What are the implications for Europe and the US in the political, economic and (cyber) security fields? What are the possible approaches to dealing with China’s increasing ambitions? Can Chinese, European and American business and security interests and rules ever be compatible?

Dean Cheng, Senior Research Fellow, The Heritage Foundation, Washington D.C.

Yang Cheng, Assistant Dean, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University

Theresa Fallon, Director, Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies, Brussels

Torrey Taussig, Robert Bosch Foundation Fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.


Moderated by: Bobo Lo, Independent Scholar and Consultant





Closing session

Thinking Cannot Be a Campaign

Conversation between former President of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves and Diplomatic Adviser at the Office of the Federal President of Germany Thomas Bagger

Moderated byEdward Lucas, Senior Vice President, CEPA



Final words



Farewell lunch