A strong NATO with a strong Europe will be credible, confident, and therefore at peace

“We shall go forward together”.

This is the theme of this year’s Lennart Meri conference.

It refers to a speech by Winston Churchill that he gave in 1942. During a dark time in our history, when Europe was struggling to defend against a brutal aggression. 

Much like today. 

The message of Churchill’s speech back then was clear – no matter how dire or hopeless the situation, working together, and moving forward together will bring back the sunlight „more lasting than mankind has ever known,“ as he put it.

And it did. For a while.

In the security environment of 2025, which is again quite turbulent and chaotic, it is only relevant to ask ourselves again – how “we shall go forward together”. 

So how do we do that?

First of all, it is obvious, that every forward movement implies precise understanding of the right direction. What defines this direction? 

To an Estonian the answer is clear: our values and principles show us the way. Principles like the rule of law; freedom to choose one’s fate and one’s allies; respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, protection of human rights and dignity. 

These fundamentals are our compass. They point us in the right direction. They help us avoid rash decisions even when stormy waves seem to be going over our heads. Knowing what’s right and just helps us avoid dangerous compromises out of fear. 

Thus, if we want to move forward, we need our compass to be working. We need to stick to our principles. Especially when dealing with adversaries like Russia.

The Russia-threat will not go away with our kindness or concessions. For Estonia it is difficult to trust Russia with any deals. Russia has broken too many agreements with us and our allies, including our Nation’s birth certificate – the Tartu Peace Treaty of 1920. 

Giving in to dictators demands has never brought a lasting peace. Instead, peace has always endured, when we have come out of our comfort zone and have stood up against tyranny. 

Estonia stands firmly for a rules-based world where international law prevails; where aggression as a tool is unacceptable; and where all war criminals will be held accountable, no matter how many nuclear weapons they have got.

So, to move forward we need to trust our core principles, to trust our Compass.

But only knowing “the way forward” is not enough, we also need to “go” forward. We need concrete steps in the right direction.

In Estonia we have an old saying: “an empty sack will not stand upright.” Deterring tyrants, requires strength and force, not only words. 

Our adversaries currently tend to think that the democratic world is weak. This perceived weakness makes them consolidate, raise their confidence, and challenge us. They think the Western sack is empty, even if it might not be.

Europe is undefeated economically, and politically. But now, more than ever, Europe has to become strong militarily as well. 

NATO is the foundation of Western security. But Europe is the foundation of NATO. 

Europe is moving in the right direction in building up our defence capabilities, and a lot has been done already. But there is still a long way to go, as we all know. 

Estonia will invest more than 5% of its GDP in defence at least for the next couple of years. This is not a political number, rather this is what our experts have calculated the defence of Estonia and our NATO commitments really cost. 

We encourage our Allies to do the same. During the Cold War the average NATO defence spending was 4%. But today, the challenges we face are even greater than those back then. Because we not only have to build new capabilities, but at the same time we have to climb out of the hole that the decades of underinvestment have brought us into. 

By not investing the 2% pledged in 2014, Europe has lost hundreds of billions worth of defence capabilities. And of course – we need a working deterrence now, not in ten years’ time.

The sense of difficulty overshadows the importance of the task. Some say that it is only logical that countries next to Russia spend a lot on defence. 

They do not seem to understand that Russia’s aggression is not directed only against its immediate neighbours, but against the whole of Europe, and the whole of NATO. Against a different way of life, our way of life. Moreover, in a war with Russia no place in Europe will be safe. Every country in Europe is a neighbour to Russia. 

Europe will build up these military capabilities. A strong NATO with a strong Europe will be credible, confident, and therefore at peace.

And lastly, to make Churchill’s call complete, let’s think about the word “together.” It is probably the easiest to define, although sometimes it seems the hardest to achieve.

Estonia is a firm believer in alliances. The success of our nation, our freedom, is the direct result of cooperation with our allies. That’s why we are committed to NATO and EU and multilateralism.

Cooperation between nations has held peace and security in Europe and elsewhere for decades. The combined strength and conviction of allies is something that deters our adversaries the best. The success and efficiency is ensured through dedicated leadership. Last week I happily took note of the new core – France, Germany, Poland and UK – emerging.

Estonia also fully supports the initiative of President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer to build a tailored alliance – a coalition of the willing – to guarantee the security of Ukraine. Our military is ready to participate, pending parliamentary approval.  

Estonia also supports Ukraine in its path to full NATO membership. Not only because it would be the best guarantee for a peaceful future for Ukraine, but also because Ukraine – with its defensive will and undefeated military – would make NATO itself much stronger, and Europe much more secure. I am certain that Ukraine will someday become part of NATO.

Building alliances is our strength in the West. We do it better than the autocrats. It is our trump-card. The key to successful alliances lies in taking practical, results-oriented steps. These steps strengthen our bonds and yield mutual benefits. Just as the United States empowers Europe to be a global power, Europe, in turn, plays a vital role in sustaining America’s own superpower status.

With this, dear ladies and gentlemen, let me invite us to stand firm for our values internationally, to make our defence capabilities robust, to breathe new life into our alliances.

And to go forward together!