Nordic-Baltic Security without the United States?
When the Nordic and Baltic states joined NATO, whether in 1949, 2004, 2023, or 2024, the decision was primarily grounded in a desire to have the United States as an Ally. It was the transatlantic security ties to the global superpower and its extended conventional…
How to Resist Russia’s Covert War Against the West
In parallel with the continuation of the military intervention in Ukraine, Russia has intensified its non-military aggression in western countries, using the entire spectrum of covert actions: from supporting political proxies and propaganda, to the formation of paramilitary organisations and conducting sabotage actions against critical…
Seizing the Opportunity to Enhance Intelligence-Policy Relations
The unusual geopolitical moment created by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, now, by the shift in official US policy and tone present enormous challenges for Europe’s political leaders, national security officials, and intelligence professionals. But the troubling times also offer a once-in-a-generation opportunity to…
Trump, Silicon Valley, and Europe’s Far-right
A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe. It is being replaced by one based on ultra-conservative values, autocratic tendencies, and nativism.
Learning from Ukraine: Failing to Manage Risk Guarantees Failure
If I have learned anything from the war in Ukraine, it is that national security professionals love the word “risk.” They talk about managing risk, escalation risk, and the risk of miscalculation. But if you poll them, you might hear dozens of different definitions of…
European Energy Policy in a Time of Crisis
The focus of European energy policy, for at least the last decade, has been the energy transition, with renewables playing a central role. Given the threats posed by climate change, this focus was understandable. However, such a policy is inadequate in an extreme crisis, when…
Nothing Is Forever Lost: Ukraine’s Multi-Domain Resistance and the Future of Peace
Over the past eleven years, Ukraine’s resistance movement has matured into a hybrid, multi-domain defence ecosystem operating deep within occupied territory and, increasingly, across the border inside Russia itself. What began as a series of loosely coordinated and under-resourced acts of defiance in 2014 has…
Free Nations in the New Era
The 20th century was full of revolutions and wars that claimed tens of millions of lives. But by the end of the millennium, humanity was succeeding in building a wonderful world which would be called the liberal or rule-based international order. Then came the 21st…
Europe’s Very Special Relationship Problem
Concessions to Russia, pressure on Ukraine, rumours of US-Russian deals to open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, tariffs, threats to “take” Greenland, election support for far right parties, equivocations over NATO: Europe learned very quickly that Donald Trump’s second administration will be an extraordinary challenge…