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LMC 2023

Everything Can Change All of a Sudden: Security in Northern Europe

Finland’s accession and Sweden’s likely accession to NATO have completely changed the security situation in the wider north. The Baltic Sea will be almost surrounded by NATO and EU member states. Seven of the eight Arctic states will be NATO Allies.


Minna Ålander

Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Benedetta Berti

Head of Policy Planning in the Office of the Secretary General at NATO

Sławomir Dębski

Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs

Peter Viggo Jakobsen

Associate Professor at the Institute for Strategy and War Studies at the Royal Danish Defence College

Žygimantas Pavilionis

Chairman of Foreign Affairs Committee at the Parliament (Seimas) of the Republic of Lithuania


Kusti Salm

Permanent Secretary of Ministry of Defence of Estonia

What opportunities and challenges do Finland’s accession and Sweden’s likely accession bring to the Alliance? How will the security environment in the wider north change? How should NATO treat this now very coherent region and how might Russia adjust its military posture in response? What are the implications of this shift for Allies in the wider Baltic region such as Poland and Germany? What are the implications for Nordic-Baltic defence cooperation?

“Everything can change all of a sudden, and for no reason at all!”

Tove Jansson, Moominpappa at Sea (1965)