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Night Owl Session under Chatham House Rule

Escalation (Mis)Management in Ukraine 

May 17, 21:30-22:45

“What should happen when you make a mistake is this: You take your knocks, you learn your lessons, and then you move on.”  

―Ronald Reagan, Address to the Nation, 4 March 1987

Speakers

Dmitry Adamsky

Professor at Reichman University

Eliot A Cohen

Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Ann Marie Dailey

Policy Researcher at RAND

Élie Tenenbaum

Director of the Security Studies Center at the French Institute of International Affairs

Moderator

Hiroyuki Akita

Commentator for Nikkei

A key learning moment from the war in Ukraine is escalation management. Some argue that by controlling what Ukraine can and cannot attack with American weapons, the US made the war longer and more destructive than it could have been. Others praise the Biden administration for its cautious approach that did not play with World War III. Throughout the war, Putin has repeatedly threatened nuclear Armageddon should the Ukrainians cross a ‘red line’ or should the west support Ukraine in a significant way, for example, by putting its boots on the ground. Would Russia have used nuclear weapons if the west had given Ukraine tanks or long-range missiles earlier? Had the west acted more decisively from the start, could the reality be much different today? What will other countries—like South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Poland—learn from this?