Brief answers to a big question: what will be the aftermath of Russia’s war in Ukraine for the international order?
Orysia Lutsevych, Charles Grant, Hanna Shelest, Jill Dougherty, Salome Samadashvili, Sergei Medvedev, Marshall Billingslea, Claudia Major, Mehdi Beyad, Damon Wilson, Anna Wieslander.
“If Russia manages to conquer more Ukrainian territory, occupy it and solidify its control, it would mean that our international order is again in danger because might is right.”
“The Europeans are much more dependent on trade with China than is the US. The Europeans will find it much harder to cut their ties with China than the US would be able to do so. That will create some tension between the Europeans and Americans.”
“We definitely need to reform our system of early warning, we definitely need to reform the system of exchange of information between different partner countries. And we definitely need to understand what is the best way to fight war crimes or at least to find those who should be punished.”
“Russia will now be more and more of a country that will not be integrated with the world, at least with the West. It may pull in the opposite direction, obviously trying to connect more economically, militarily et cetera with China.”
“Russia needs to pay a hefty price for what it has done. This is the only way to co-opt them into accepting the world where Russia enjoys no privileged spheres of influence and rejects using force as a political tool.”
“Putin and Russia in general want to export chaos, unpredictability and destroy the current system of international relations, and live in this chaos. And for us, it’s the chance to build new institutions and not to allow this chaos to happen.”
“We need to send also a very clear message to other dictatorships, like Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party, that we will not tolerate aggression against other countries.”
“With that war, this co-operative security order is over and we enter a new security order in Europe, which will be confrontational and which will not be possible with Russia but to a large extent against Russia.”
“Many tend to talk about a West/non-West divide at times like these. However, another dividing line may turn out to be that between developed and developing countries, with the latter feeling increasingly squeezed and marginalised.”
“The international order must be built around supporting a free, sovereign, democratic Ukraine that actually emerges from this war stronger. With stronger democratic institutions, a stronger chance of success of determining its own future, showing that Ukraine is at the heart of the free world.”
“The regional European security order has definitely fallen, but we also see that EU and NATO are stronger and more solid than they have been in many years and I think that is an important core.”