Summary

The theme of this year’s conference — Fortune Favours the Brave — underscores the fundamental need for agency, will, and confident action in shaping Europe’s future. At a time when the continent’s ability to shape its own destiny is put to the test, LMC 2026 recalls the words of the Danish philosopher Søren Kierkegaard: “To dare is to lose one’s footing momentarily. Not to dare is to lose oneself.”

The discussions have addressed Europe’s strategic goals in an evolving security environment and whether Europe is ready to dare and deliver. LMC 2026 has approached Europe’s security from several angles: from strengthening economic and hybrid security, such as battling FIMI and election interference, to ensuring societal resilience and political stability, safeguarding democratic institutions, and providing nuclear deterrence.  

Building on discussions at LMC 2025, this year’s conference has highlighted the importance of alliances and partnerships for guaranteeing security and stability in Europe and beyond. The opening panel, “A bridge over troubled water: the future of transatlantic cooperation,” laid out the status quo ahead of the NATO Ankara summit. It clearly underscored that NATO is “alive and kicking,” as Jana Puglierin put it, and, on the practical side, works as well as a Swiss watch, according to Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kristen Michal. At the same time, the panel highlighted the need for European Allies to do more, with the NATO Deputy Secretary General Boris Ruge noting that the Ankara summit will be laser-focused on the commitments made last year in the Hague. While Europe’s rearmament was deemed essential, Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama called for maintaining focus on other key areas, such as competitiveness, at the same time. The US Under Secretary Tom DiNanno signalled the US’s long-term commitment to Europe, with four US ambassadors to the region in attendance. 

The growing importance of cooperation and interconnectedness was a clear focus. The session on partnership prospects between Europe and the Indo-Pacific noted both the necessities and the possibilities driving collaboration amid common challenges and shared interests. The Foreign Secretary of the Philippines, Theresa M. Lazaro, who was her country’s first high-level representative to visit LMC, and Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kestutis Budrys, underscored the momentum for cooperation between the EU and ASEAN, driven by the prioritisation of stability, international law, and multilateralism. Minister Ayman Safadi of Jordan shared his country’s lessons for survival in a tough neighbourhood, stressing the role of partnerships within and outside the region, as well as the interconnectedness between Europe and the Middle East. As a basis for such cooperation, he underscored the importance of remaining true to international law and the rules-based order, as well as of building on the common and respecting differences. 

A more holistic understanding of Europe’s security, as part of an interconnected system rather than an isolated theatre, is also a foundation for unity and a 360-degree approach, as Elena Lazarou explained. A common threat perception is crucial, and in this regard, Europe is in a better position than ever. “Together we are strong,” said the EU’s High Representative, Kaja Kallas, underlining the need to counter the adversaries’ divide et impera strategy.  

Urgency was a key message that emerged from discussions on defence, with Estonia’s Minister of Defence Hanno Pevkur calling to do more, including increasing defence investment and strengthening the industrial base. Carlo Masala, however, was candid in his disappointment, noting that although Europe is rhetorically on the right track, “in everything we do, we are too slow.” General Ingo Gerhartz was straightforward: “Europe should stop crying and get moving.” “Complaining does not help,” Moldova’s President Maia Sandu mirrored this recommendation — we just need to become aware of this new reality and strengthen our resilience.  

The need to foster Europe’s self-confidence and preparedness was a recurring theme throughout the sessions. The President of Montenegro, Jakov Milatovic, wondered why Europe does not display more confidence in the values it represents, for example, by applying its visionary approach to the EU’s enlargement. “Europe, regardless of its flaws, is still by far the best possible place in the entire world where one can be born to live,” he stated. Phillips O’Brien approached the theme from another angle: Europe needs to stop listening to Washington’s official voice and instead trust its own analysis. Hiski Haukkala prescribed the right mental model to inform us as societies, individuals, and leaders. He focused on the concept of participatory patriotism, in which citizens understand their stake in society and which is fostered by good policy-making. “Fortune not only favours the brave but it rewards the prepared,” he reminded. In good policy-making, prioritising both guns and butter, as well as paying attention to competitiveness and growth, as highlighted in Mario Draghi’s report, is crucial for success.  

In addition to preparedness, we need to work on credibility. Deterrence is a matter of psychology and mindset as much as physical capabilities. On the one hand, leaders should be careful about any signalling that could be interpreted as weakness or a lack of automaticity in the basic agreements within alliances. At the same time, we must remember that Europe’s willingness and ability to project readiness to defend itself immediately — with or without Americans — is equally important, or perhaps even more important than broadening our military arsenal, as Bruno Tertrais explained.  

Finally, Ukraine, as a strategic priority, a frontline, and a foundation for Europe’s defence, was addressed. Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo, and Ukraine’s former Chief of Defence, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, outlined what Ukraine’s experience on the battlefield teaches Europe about the strategic clarity it still badly needs. Ukraine’s central role in Europe’s defence and its security strategy was highlighted throughout the sessions. Recently back from Ukraine, Rear Admiral (ret.) Mark Montgomery praised Kyiv’s agile approach to battlefield innovation. Jennifer Kavanagh suggested that Ukraine consider seeking independence from the Euro-Atlantic security system in the long run. Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister Mariana Betsa, and Germany’s Parliamentary State Secretary Sebastian Hartmann, on the other hand, noted that increased support and even closer cooperation between Europe and Ukraine would benefit both sides. “Supporting Ukraine is not a one-way road,” Thomas Röwekamp, Chairman of the German Bundestag, noted, emphasising the need to simultaneously build EU countries’ own defence capacities and continue assisting Ukraine. As Robert Wilkie put it: “Ukraine is showing us the way to the future.” 

The discussions revealed that, despite all the hardships, Ukraine is currently in a better position on the battlefield than it has been in a long time. Russia, on the other hand, is facing increasing pressure: Ukraine’s long-range strikes, economic sanctions, and the prospects of the newly established tribunal for war crimes. Saying that Russia moves at a snail’s pace is an insult to snails, Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže summarised. As Garry Kasparov pointed out, a Ukrainian victory is an unavoidable precondition for any potential change in Russia. At the same time, this change might be particularly difficult to bring about, considering Russia’s deep-rooted imperialism that informs its interpretation of international law, as Lauri Mälksoo brought forth in this year’s Lennart Meri Lecture. 

Ambassador Angus Campbell hit the nail on the head:  

“What I see in Ukraine tells me wars are easy to start and hard to finish. Wars metastasise in ways you have never imagined before they start. […] And wars destroy your economy as fast as you’re attempting to destroy your enemy. If that learning is permeating across our international system, perhaps the future might not be as dire.” 

“Europe does possess bravery,” President Alar Karis, patron of LMC, said. “We must now bring it to the forefront. Let us put Europe in the lead — on our continent and on the global stage. So that fortune may indeed favour us.” 

The ICDS and the Lennart Meri European Foundation organise the annual Lennart Meri Conference to acknowledge President Meri’s continuing legacy in foreign and security policy thinking. The LMC aims to encourage curiosity and debate, highlight unity and diversity, and foster liberty and democracy. Every year since 2007, it has brought together around 500 distinguished policymakers, analysts, politicians, military personnel, and thought leaders from around the globe in Tallinn.  

DefsecIntel and Jaan Tõnissoni Postimehe Fond were the main sponsors of LMC 2026. Other partners and supporters were the Estonian Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Government Office, as well as NATO, the Open Society Foundation, the Baltic-American Freedom Foundation, Saab, Swedbank, MBDA, Infortar, the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, the US Embassy in Estonia, the European Commission, and PractNet. Elering is an ICDS research partner.