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LMC 2023

On the Brink of an Unknown Future: The South Caucasus

Russia’s war in Ukraine has had knock-on effects in the South Caucasus, accelerating extant geopolitical and security shifts. Russia remains very present in the region, attempting to sabotage EU efforts to bring an end to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and striving to retain its grip on an increasingly disillusioned Armenia. But other regional actors are also keen to increase their influence: Iran is building a security partnership with Russia but its relations with Azerbaijan are tense, while Turkey staunchly supports Baku at the same time as pursuing a degree of normalisation with Armenia. The Georgian Government, meanwhile, is facing both popular discontent at home and criticism from the EU for its slow progress on reforms.


Leila Alieva

Affiliate of Russian and East European Studies at Oxford University School for Global and Area Studies

Tinatin Khidasheli

Head of Civic – IDEA

Armine Margaryan

Political Military Expert

Olesya Vartanyan

South Caucasus analyst at the International Crisis Group


Bob Deen

Senior Research Fellow on Security and Defence for the Clingendael Institute

What trends are play in this strategically important region? Where might they lead? How might they impact European security? Are there opportunities that Europe should seek to exploit?

“And we danced, on the brink of an unknown future, to an echo from a vanished past.”

John Wyndham, The Day of the Triffids (1951)