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LMC 2021

Cras es Noster? The Future Is Ours – Who Owns the Future of Belarus?

One year after the rigged elections, the situation in Belarus has reached a stalemate which, unusually, all parties seem ready to tolerate.


Nigel Gould-Davies

Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies

Linas Linkevicius
Linas Linkevičius

Ambassador-at-large, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania

Hanna Shelest

Director of Security Programmes, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”

Katsiaryna Shmatsina
Katsiaryna Shmatsina

Research Fellow, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies


Pavel Slunkin

Visiting Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations

Alyaksandr Lukashenka is still in power, balancing internal terror, bribes, negotiations, and help from Russia, but exporting unrest, notably through the migration crisis on the Lithuanian border. The Belarussian democratic forces, many of whom were forced to flee Belarus, are wary. Their leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, resides in Lithuania and is attempting to bring consolidation to the West’s response—the West, though sympathetic, lacks a programme for action. Russia is apparently uncomfortable with the situation.

  • What is the future for Belarus?
  • Can a compromise be found to avoid the worst-case scenarios?
  • What can the West possibly do to mitigate this threat in the middle of Europe?

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