Senior Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Ambassador, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania
Director of Security Programmes, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”
Research Fellow, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies
Alyaksandr Lukashenka is still in power, balancing internal terror, bribes, negotiations, and help from Russia, but exporting unrest, notably through the migration crisis on the Lithuanian border. The Belarussian democratic forces, many of whom were forced to flee Belarus, are wary. Their leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, resides in Lithuania and is attempting to bring consolidation to the West’s response—the West, though sympathetic, lacks a programme for action. Russia is apparently uncomfortable with the situation.
- What is the future for Belarus?
- Can a compromise be found to avoid the worst-case scenarios?
- What can the West possibly do to mitigate this threat in the middle of Europe?